DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A MODFLOW PREPROCESSOR USING PERCOLATION THEORY FOR FRACTURED MEDIA1

ABSTRACT: The discrete heterogeneity of fracture distribution and hydraulic discontinuity are the primary difficulties in the modeling of flow in fractured media. The equivalent porous medium (EPM) approach, however, which has been frequently applied to simulate flow in fractured media due to its ease of use, ignores this. This practice results in some severe limitations such as hydraulic head averaging and an inability to handle preferred fluid pathways. The PMF package (a Preprocessor to MODFLOW for Fractured media) was developed employing percolation theory to address these limitations and to utilize the simplicity of the EPM approach at the same time. This preprocessor was applied to a fractured rock aquifer around Cranberry Lake in northern New Jersey. The calibration using hydraulic head observations, validation using water balance, and evaluation using residuals show that the model generated by the PMF package can provide a superior simulation of ground water flow to the EPM approach.     

The design and use of strategic planning arenas

This paper takes a close look at communication, process, power and institutional arrangements in the context of strategic planning. It introduces an eight step process for structuring strategic thinking and acting and develops the concept of “arenas” as a very influential — yet often very subtle — exercise of power over the course of a strategic planning process.     

EVALUATION OF CONSUMER NOTIFICATION UNDER THE SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT1

ABSTRACT: The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 as amended in 1986 requires that consumers be notified when maximum contaminant levels are exceeded in their community water supply and when prescribed testing and treatment procedures are not met. A review of communication theory indicates that for the message to be effective (1) it must be received by the intended audience, (2) it must be attended to by that audience, (3) it must be understood, and (4) it must be accepted and acted upon. A review and analysis of existing research evaluating notification programs administered under the Safe Drinking Water Act indicates (1) that receipt rates have been highly, variable, (2) that attention to the message has usually not been directly assessed, (3) that levels of understanding, while variable, have usually been minimal, and (4) that acceptance, though not often directly measured, seemed higher than expected. These results, while critical of past notification programs, indicate that understanding and acceptance can be increased if receipt and attention rates are increased. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations for improving receipt and attention rates, for increasing understanding, and, most importantly, for increasing acceptance and community action for upgrading local water treatment and quality.     

THE EFFECT OF SOME BASIC STATISTICAL AND BIOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES ON WATER POLLUTION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: The hypothesis of this paper is that the frequently used regulatory practice which employs point estimates in water pollution control objectives, in combination with monitoring at infrequent intervals, is an inadequate scientific procedure for the measurement and control of pollution. The first part of this paper outlines the relevant sampling theory which applies to the measurement of effluent from industrial plants and describes the possible errors in sampling practice which currently affect the interpretation and enforcement of environmental standards. In the second part of the paper, the authors describe briefly the environmental significance of biological damage functions. In the final part of the paper, the authors recommend that existing pollution control regulations be restructured to be more efficient and effective in the protection of both corporate and social interests. By adopting two different approaches to regulation depending upon the nature of the appropriate damage functions and critical fish species, it is possible to reduce significantly the waste of resources.     

区域火灾风险评估模型研究的理论与实践

首先立足于风险研究这个大背景下,在理论上对风险的概念进行了比较分析。然后针对水灾的风险根据其研究与实践中的侧重点不同,分为“损失可能性”学派、“未来损失”学派以及“损失不确定性”三个学派。在此基础上,分析了水灾风险的不确定性,从而提出了易于概率论和可能性理论的水灾风险定义,并将此定义应用于区域水灾风险评估的模型中。最后,探讨了水灾风险评估研究的问题与对其未来的展望。     

确立生态文明观逐步建立经济与环境融合机制

新世纪即将来临的时候,应当确立生态文明观并建立持续发展的技术体制。为了达到这个目的,必须探讨环境保护和经济发展相统一,还要重新审视我国环境政策框架。     

生态位理论的发展及其在农业生产中的应用

生态位理论近年来在理论生态学和应用生态学的发展中起到了重要的作用。本文回顾了生态位理论的发展概况,介绍了在生态位理论发展历程中作出巨大贡献的三位生态学家,格林尼尔的“空间生态位”,埃尔顿的“功能生态位”,哈奇森的“多维超体积生态位”概念。用系统论的观点总结了如何正确理解生态位概念及其理论,并就如何应用生态位理论来指导农业生产实践提出了切实可行的多种途径,如高效合理利用现存的生态位,开拓潜在生态位,定向改变基础生态位等,也为生态位理论更好地指导农业生产实践提供了新思路。     

Decision making in dune management: theory and practice

Effective decision making depends upon the availability of quality information. Procedures involved in assessing dune vulnerability and protection require monitoring of sporadic processes and information must be collected from many discipline sources. In particular, a significant challenge to strategic management is recognition of subtle discontinuities which could undermine the long term stability of the dune system. These changes may be irregular and/or non linear requiring managers to be aware of existing parameters, patterns and emerging discontinuities. A range of components within the system should be measured on a systematic, temporal and spatial basis. An environmentalchecklist is a useful management technique which systematises information, so that strategic objectives can be made operational and achievable. Problems can be identified and solved with this methodology particularly if it is incorporated into aW problem solving model. The checklist procedure proposed in this paper has been developed and tested in field conditions for a range of north-west and south-European dune systems. Whereas a universalchecklist applicable to all systems is utopian in aim, intra and extra-regional comparisons can be undertaken with only minor modifications of some components. Parameters covering site and dune morphology, beach condition; surface character of the seaward 200 m of the dunes; pressure of use and recent protection measures are the basis for calculating vulnerability and protection indices. The balance between these indices can be determined, analysed and form the foundation for future informed management decisions.     

The maximum power principle: An empirical investigation

The maximum power principle is a potential guide to understanding the patterns and processes of ecosystem development and sustainability. The principle predicts the selective persistence of ecosystem designs that capture a previously untapped energy source. This hypothesis was investigated empirically in controlled and replicated tests conducted in planktonic microcosms. Microecosystems that developed under a pH-controlled light regime, in which light duration was altered based on changes in an ecosystem-controllable variable (water column pH), were compared with those that developed under fixed photoperiods. According to the principle, pH-decreasing (and power-increasing) organization should selectively persist under pH-controlled light. To assess changes in pH dynamics that occurred under the alternative selection regime, in which photoperiods were not linked with pH-affecting selection or organization, the microecosystems that developed under fixed photoperiods were subjected to pH-controlled light on the last day of each test. The daily light duration increased 506 min on average in microecosystems that developed under pH-controlled light and 412 min on average in microecosystems that developed under fixed photoperiods. Selective reinforcement of acid-secreting blue-green algae in response to CO₂ and nutrient limitations could account for the greater increase in power acquisition in microecosystems that developed under pH-controlled light.